[为什么这么多国家针对我国]美国为什么一直针对中国？中国问题专家马丁

原副标题：英国为何始终特别针对我省？弗兰克·皮埃尔那么说……

英国为何把我省的兴起视为严重威胁，想方设法竭力阻扰？在我省日报新时代讲堂上，英国牛津大学前高阶副研究员、我省难题研究者弗兰克·皮埃尔表示，这是一类军国主义强国的焦虑在作怪。长期以来，英国保有绝对竞争优势的亚洲地区强权，英国长生的设想真切于许多英国人倔强。因而，直面我省的兴起，英国的化学反应就从方方面面竭力阻扰和压制。但，弗兰克·皮埃尔凌厉表示，发展史断定，没别的北欧国家可以始终做大哥。

弗兰克·皮埃尔英国牛津大学在政治上与外交学院前高阶副研究员

新时代讲堂

英语演说

《我省兴起是当今世界维护和平及产业发展的强有力保证，而不是严重威胁》（有所删减，英语为原文）

中美晚期亲密关系为何还极好？即使英国表示我省会欧化

我省从1978年开始的兴起是在三个相较平衡的国际性自然环境中进行的，而此种产业发展有三个关键所在，就是中美间相较良性循环的亲密关系。

China‘s rise from 1978 took place in a relatively stable international environment。 And at the core of this was the relatively benign relationship between the United States and China。

在这段时间，英国对我省的立场是如前所述三个基本上假定。

There were two fundamental assumptions that underpinned America‘s attitude towards China over this period。

第二个假定是我省在在政治上上滞后太多，基本上上没可能会考验或严重威胁到英国在当今世界范围内的经济竞争优势话语权。

The first was that China was so far behind economically， that it was virtually impossible to imagine China becoming an economic challenger or threat to American economic ascendancy in the world。

第二个因素，也是我表示更重要的因素是，英国表示我省在现代化过程中会欧化。

And the second factor and I think a more important factor was that the American belief was that as China modernized， it would westernize。

即使英国的立场基本上上是，现代化的过程等同于欧化的过程。所以英国的假定是我省会渐渐变得像三个西方北欧国家，看起来像英国一样，比如采用西式的在政治上体制。

Because remember the American attitude fundamentally was that the process of modernization was also a process of westernization。 So the American assumption was that over time， China would become increasingly look like a western country， look like the United States have， for example， centrally， a western style political system。

英国想当然地表示，如果我省没这样产业发展，那么它的兴起就会走到尽头、碰壁，无法持续。

And the Americans took it for granted that if this didn‘t happen， then China’s rise would come to an end， hit a wall， be unsustainable。

转折发生在2008年金融危机

2008年的西方金融危机打破了英国对我省的这三个假想。转折就从这里开始。这完全出乎意料。

Now， what began to undermine these two American assumptions about China really starts with the financial crisis， Western financial crisis in 2008。 This was the beginning of the turning point。 Now， this was completely unexpected。

自1931年以来，英国还没经历过这样的金融危机。在这个时期，英国遇到了大麻烦，西方遇到了大麻烦。

America had not experienced a financial crisis like this since 1931。 And America was in big trouble – the West was in big trouble during this period。

说实话，西方始终没真正从这次危机中恢复过来，经济增长始终疲软，疫情开始之后又是另一番样子。从某种程度来说，西方经济艰难地维持着。

And to be frank， it‘s never really recovered。 Its growth rates are still， until the pandemic which is a different story。 To some extent， the Western economy has been on a life support system。

与此同时，我省在这期间的情况完全不同。

Meanwhile， China has been in a completely different situation during this period。

我省当然受到了这次危机的影响，但基本上上我省继续以和之前差不多的速度增长。

I mean， China was of course affected by it， but basically China continues to grow at more or less the same rate， as it had before。

到了2014年，根据当今世界银行的衡量标准，按购买力平价方法计算，我省的国内生产总值赶超英国。这段时间，按年计算，我省在亚洲地区经济增长总额当中占三分之一。可以看到，双方的产业发展出现差异。

And by 2014， extraordinarily， China overtook the United States in terms of GDP， primary purchasing power， according to this measure from the World Bank。 China by this time also， on an annual basis， was accounting for one third of global economic growth。 So you see， there‘s a chasm in experience。

还有许多其他方面的难题不能不提，那就是在政治上。

But there was something else we must add to this picture。 And that was， remember， politics。

西方本以为金融危机会在我省发生，但它却在西方发生了。西方本以为在政治上危机会在我省发生，但它也在西方发生了。

The economic crisis was expected by the West to happen in China - it happened in the West。 The political crisis was expected by the West to happen in China - it happened in the West。

不满的声音越来越多，特别是英国和其他地方的传统劳动阶层群体。随之而来的是民粹主义的兴起。这是三个非常重要的时刻，对西方的经济和在政治上形势产生极大影响。

And you got the rise of growing dissatisfaction， particularly amongst traditional working class people and so on in the States and elsewhere。 And the rise of what we came to know， as populism。 So this was a really important moment， which began to undermine the situation in the West， both economically and politically。

结果是，西方政府，但不仅仅局限于政府圈，对来自我省的考验，越来越感到焦虑。这个自1972年以来的合作伙伴渐渐被视为一类严重威胁。

And with the consequence that there was also a growing anxiety in the West， and particularly in governing circles， but not only in governing circles， about the challenge of China， the partner as it were since 1972， was seen increasingly as a threat。

焦虑与日俱增，结果就是对我省的敌意越来越大。最终，对我省的敌意在2016年特朗普当选英国总统后达到了高潮。

There was growing anxiety； there was growing hostility towards China as a result of this。 And eventually， of course， this culminates in the election of Trump in 2016， as American president。

英国人为何不能容忍我省兴起

英国为何不能容忍我省兴起？为何它把我省兴起直接解读为我省严重威胁？

Now， why couldn‘t America tolerate the rise of China？ Why does it immediately translate China’s rise into the China threat？

要解答这个难题，我们必须要了解三个军国主义强国的焦虑，尤其是英国。

And here， we have to， I think， understand the psychology of an imperial power， and the United States in particular。

英国在三个相当长的发展史时期，几个世纪以来，始终保持着一类上升的势头。从1945年开始，他们始终保有绝对竞争优势的亚洲地区强权。

You see， the Americans are extraordinarily over a very long historical period， centuries， have always been on the rise。 And since 1945， they‘ve been overwhelmingly global hegemonic。

英国长生，这是刻在许多英国人倔强的一类设想。不仅仅是总统和国会议员那么想，许多普通英国人也对此深信不疑。

The idea that America is number one is part of the American DNA。 It‘s not just the presidents and the congressmen and so on who believe this。 This is deeply imbued， I think， in the average Americans。

他们表示自己是最好的，他们必须是头儿。他们不能被别人指挥，他们不会被别人比下去。

The Americans think they are best； the Americans think they have to be top dogs。 They‘re not going to be bossed around by anyone else。 They’re not going to be rivaled by anyone else。

当然，现实可不是这样。从发展史上看，没任何三个北欧国家可以永保第一。想想我省——百年的屈辱，曾经的话语权被取而代之。英国也是如此。英国也将会是这样。

Now， of course， the reality is rather different， historically speaking， because no country can ever expect to be number one forever。 Think of China， the century of humiliation – China was displaced。 And so this was the case with Britain， and so on。 And this will be the case with the United States。

英国经济的相较下滑大概从80年代左右开始的。但英国始终不承认，时至今日也不承认。三个英国总统如果说：我们正在衰退而且无法逆转，我们必须调整自己去适应三个全新的当今世界。这无异于自杀。英国还没做好接受此种论调的准备。

America‘s relative economic decline probably starts around the 1980s。 But the Americans have basically been in denial of this。 Even to this day， they’re largely in denial。 It would be suicide for an American president to say： We are in decline， and we cannot change that situation。 We have to accommodate ourselves to a new world。 Americans are not ready for this kind of argument。

那么英国对我省这个严重威胁作何化学反应？从本质上讲，英国的化学反应是攻击我省，想办法增加我省兴起的难度。如果有可能的话，阻止我省的兴起。如果不行，至少阻扰我省的兴起。所以特朗普当上总统后没过多久贸易战就开始了。

So what was the American response to China as a threat？ Essentially， the American response was an assault against China， to find a way of making China‘s rise more difficult。 To prevent China’s rise， if possible。 If not， at least obstruct China‘s rise。 And so after Trump becomes president， you see， after a short while， the beginning of the trade war。

在贸易战之后，或者说在贸易战 、科技战的同时，对我省的立场愈发尖锐粗暴。你能看到他们在方方面直面我省进行攻击。

And then after the trade war， or alongside the trade war， the tech war and steadily as the acrimonious and abrasive approach to China developed， you see actions to be taken against China on all sorts of different fronts。

美中新冷战与美苏冷战有三点不同

我想说的是，也许可以把现在当今世界所处的形势，以及英国和我省间的亲密关系称为新冷战。

I would argue now， I think probably it would be appropriate to call the situation that the world is now in， and the relationship between the United States and China， as a new Cold War。

但我们用冷战这个词，并不代表我们要把现在的情况与美苏冷战混为一谈。有三个根本区别。

But just because we use the term Cold War doesn‘t mean we should confuse or conflate this Cold War with the one between United States and the Soviet Union。 There are three fundamental differences between them。

第二个区别是，英国和苏联所处的和所保有的是三个完全不同的经济当今世界。双方永不产生接触，他们保有三个不同的国际性体系。三个是属于英国的，另三个是属于苏联的。

The first is that the United States and the Soviet Union lived and occupied two entirely different economic worlds。 Never the twain shall meet – they just had two different international systems， one belonging to the United States， the other to the Soviet Union。

我省的情况当然不是这样，我省与亚洲地区经济高度融合。其实在某些方面，我省与亚洲地区经济的融合程度比英国还要高。比如贸易，同为进出口贸易国，我省要比英国重要得多。

Now， of course， this is not the situation with China。 China is hugely integrated with the global economy。 Indeed， I would argue that in some respects， it‘s more integrated with the global economy than is true of the United States。 I mean， take for one thing， trade。 China is a much more important trading nation， exporting and importing， than the United States。

无论英国说什么，无论特朗普政府想做什么，他们都无法将我省从亚洲地区经济中剥离出去。他们可能会尝试这样做，但在我看来他们不会走到那一步。

Now， whatever the American say， whatever the Trump administration would like to do， they will not be able to exile China from the global economy。 They can go about it， but they won‘t get that far in my view。

他们无法将我省从亚洲地区经济中剔除，我省实在是太重要了，与亚洲地区经济一体化程度太高了，它与众多北欧国家的亲密关系太密切了，不可能被剔除出去。

They can‘t take China out of the global economy。 It is simply too important； it is too integrated； its relations with so many countries around the world are too advanced for that to happen。

第二点，苏联在经济方面从来都不是英国的对手。顶多只有英国经济规模的60%左右，可能还不到，只有大约一半。

My second point is the Soviet Union was never an economic pair or equal of the United States。 At most it had maybe 60% of the size of the American economy， probably less， probably more like half。

但我省不是这样的，2014年我省按购买力平价方法计算，经济规模就已经赶超英国了。

Now， you cannot say that of China。 China， already in 2014 as we‘ve seen， had overtaken the size of the American economy， measured by primary purchasing power， GDP。

人们普遍预计在未来几年内，也许是五年，一部分取决于疫情的影响，以国内生产总值的另三个衡量标准，也就是以美元为单位来计算，我省的经济规模将超过英国。

Now， it is generally expected that within the next few years， maybe five years， depends partly on the impact of the pandemic， that China will overtake the United States by the other measure of GDP， which is in dollar terms。

如果我们把时间范围再扩大一点，到2030年前后，亚洲地区经济大概是这样的：

And if we extend the time horizon a bit further， you‘ll see the picture of the global economy by roughly 2030。

这些数字只是预测，不是事实。但你能从中感受到，到2030年，我省可以占到亚洲地区生产总值的三分之一。到那时，它的经济规模将达到英国的两倍。按照这个标准，我省的经济规模要比英国大20%。

Now all these figures are obviously projection so they‘re not facts。 But you’ll see， it gives you some idea， that by 2030 China could account for one third of global GDP， by which time it will be something like twice the size of the American economy， already by this measure， by the way， it is 20% bigger than the American economy。

所以，我省经济的兴起十分强大，而且根基很深。它在许多不同的领域都显示了实力，当然也包括科技。

So， you know， the rise of China economically is formidable。 And it is deeply embedded。 And it is showing its ability to perform in many different areas， including， of course， technology。

第三点，苏联在对美亲密关系中犯了三个根本性的错误，那就是军备竞赛。它试图在军事上与英国竞争，投入了大量资金，浪费了许多资源，这是一类灾难性的做法。

The third point I would make is that the Soviet Union made a fundamental mistake in its relationship with the United States。 And that was the arms race。 It tried to compete militarily with the United States。 And it spent so much money， wasted such resources， a disastrous approach。

我省不会犯此种错误。我省不像英国或苏联那样强调军事。我省更加重视经济的产业发展。

China won‘t make that mistake。 China doesn’t emphasize the military in a way that， for example， the United States does， or the Soviet Union did。 China‘s approach is the fundamental importance of the economy。

新冷战的结束，取决于英国的转变

对于冷战和美中间的对立亲密关系，我们无法预测此种情况会持续多久。但，可以说此种对立亲密关系改变的条件是英国立场的转变。

I think the prospect is that we are looking at this kind of situation we‘ve got now – the Cold War and an antagonistic relationship between the United States and China for the foreseeable future。 It’s impossible to predict how long。 But you can say or I would argue that the condition for a change in this antagonism depends on a shift in the American position。

英国坚持表示他们是当今世界上唯一的主导者，但这已经不可能了。只有当英国认同必须与我省一道共同实施亚洲地区治理的时候，此种气氛和亲密关系才会发生变化。我表示，这是中美亲密关系出现新局面的前提条件。

You see， the Americans are insisting that they should enjoy sole primacy in the world。 And this is no longer possible。 This atmosphere and relationship will change at the moment when the United States comes to the view that it must share primacy in the world with China， and that will be the precondition for， I think， a new term in the relationship between the United States and China。

西方北欧国家在疫情中对待我省的立场极不光彩

西方北欧国家对待我省最不光彩的、最令人沮丧的一幕，发生在本次亚洲地区新冠疫情中。

And I think one of the most depressing， in fact， one of the most disgraceful episodes in western attitudes towards China was to do with the pandemic – COVID-19。

一月，我省正在努力弄清楚这次疫情是什么，确定病毒、研究应对方法。而西方，尤其是英国但不只英国，我自己的北欧国家英国也有参与，无情地攻击我省，说我省掩盖秘密、不告诉我们真相、掩盖存活率、比起人民的生命，政府和政党更重要等等，诸如此类的。

In January， China was struggling to understand to identify it and to work out how to deal with it。 And the West， particularly the Americans， but not only the Americans， my own country Britain for sure， attacked， relentlessly attacked China， you know， cover up your secrecy。 You‘re not telling us the truth。 You’re covering up the survival。 The government matters， the party matters more than the survival of people。

而这时我省正与巨大的困难抗争。要知道，我省是第二个遭受疫情的北欧国家。而现在，你能看到，我省直面新冠疫情的表现从一月末起就非常优秀。

This is a situation where China was struggling in great， great difficulty。 Remember， China was the first to tackle the question of COVID-19。 Now and you can see that actually， China‘s performance on COVID-19， certainly from late January， was brilliant。

这些数字是按人均计算的百万人均确诊人数。你看我省可能是全当今世界表现最好的北欧国家，虽然它不得不最先直面新冠疫情。

These figures here， are on the basis per capita， the number of cases per million people， look at China， the strongest， probably the strongest performance of any country in the world， even though it had to tackle COVID-19 before anyone else。

而所有那些大批评家，英国和其他西方北欧国家，包括我的北欧国家英国等等。一月时，他们攻击我省，毫无同情心。他们本应该把握住多出来的三个月的时间，本可以向我省学习。结果看看他们，表现得惨不忍睹。

And all those great critics， the United States and other Western countries， my own United Kingdom and so on， who could not stop themselves to （from） attacking China showed no compassion in January， had those two extra months to deal with it， could have learned from China。 And look at them， a miserable performance。

我想说，本次疫情或许首先是对治理能力的考验。毫无疑问我省已经从根本上通过了这个考验，交出了一份出色的答卷，而英国，在特朗普的领导下，很遗憾，断定是不称职的。

And I would say this， in addition， that the pandemic has been， perhaps， above all， a test of governance。 And without question， China has come through this fundamentally， with flying colors。 And the United States has been proven under the Trump leadership， but I think， unfortunately， more generally， to have been incompetent。

而如今，我省正走出疫情，创造经济机遇。

And the fact that China is now coming out of the pandemic， of course， has created major economic opportunities。

这清单上（国际性货币基金组织预测）只有三个北欧国家，2020年的国内生产总值会出现正增长，就是我省。

There‘s only one country of this list here， that is going to have positive growth in terms of GDP in 2020。 And that is China。

我省的兴起之路不靠战争

我还要说三个方面。自从我省1978年开始兴起，我省并没真正参与过任何战争。这是我省大兴起、大转型的时期，从一无所有到现在与当今世界上经济最强大的北欧国家平起平坐。

Let me just say something else as well here。 Since China‘s rise started in 1978， China has not really been involved in any wars whatsoever。 This is the period of China’s great rise， great transformation， from nothing to now being equal with the most powerful country in the world economically。

看看英国的发展史，或者德国、英国、日本的发展史。这些北欧国家在兴起时期都参与了很多战争。换句话说，我省在这段时间的产业发展过程中是非常克制的。

Now look at American history， or German history， or Bri tish history， or Japanese history， all of these countries were involved in many wars during the equivalent period of their historical development。 China， in other words， has exercised extraordinary restraint during this period of its development。

目前的国际性体系无法长期存在

我表示目前的国际性体系无法长期存在。我们生活在三个与此前完全不同的当今世界，三个快速转变的当今世界。

I don‘t believe the present international system can survive for a long time。 We live in a completely different world， a rapidly transfer changing world。

1980年，当今世界的经济中心在这里。

In 1980， the center of the global economy was here。

它在随后的30多年里慢慢地转移了。今天，它的位置大约在这里。在这段时间，亚洲地区经济的中心基本上上在西欧和英国。

And then slowly in the subsequent 30 odd years， it shifted。 And today， it‘s somewhere about here。 That’s the center of the global economy。 In those days， the global economy was essentially Western Europe and the United States。

到2050年，它会在这里，基本上上就是在印度我省边境地区。

By 2050， it‘ll be here， basically on the India-China border。

当事实上的中心在这里时，国际性体系不可能再是三个被英国和西欧这些特权北欧国家控制的体系。

There‘s no way you can have an international system which is controlled by privileges， the United States and Western Europe， when actually， the center of the action is over here。

这就需要三个不同的亚洲地区经济秩序。关于这个新的国际性体系，我想说，首先，它的核心将是我省，占亚洲地区18%的人口。在目前的国际性体系中，英国是核心，它的人口只占当今世界人口的4.3%。

You need a different kind of global economy， a different kind of global order for that kind of situation。 And I would say this， in relationship to this new international system。 First of all， the heart of it will be China – 18% of the world‘s population。 At the heart of the present international system， is the United States – just 4.3% of the world’s population。

换句话说，这将比目前的国际性体系更具有人类代表性 。

In other words， we‘re talking about an international system which will be far more representative of humanity than it is now。

换句话说，我们正在从三个专制的代表少数人的亚洲地区治理体系转变成三个更能代表全当今世界的体系。它现在已经初具雏形，今后将更加如此。

In other words， we‘re moving from an essentially authoritarian， minoritarian system of global governance to something which is far more representative of the world as it has， as it is already， and as it will be even more so in the future。

西方掌控当今世界的时代要结束了

我省的兴起，不仅仅是我省 ，还有产业发展我北欧国家的兴起，给西方带来了很大的危机，我称之为西方的生存危机。

The rise of China， not just China， the rise of the developing world as well which China of course， is part， is creating a big crisis in the West。 I would call it the existential crisis of the West。

即使200年来，西方始终掌控着当今世界，把这个当今世界当成是它的当今世界。所有主要机构都是它设计的，它始终是这些机构的核心，它的人民管理当今世界。它的语言，现在是英语，占主导话语权。现在管理当今世界的人，大体上都是白人。

Because for 200 years， the West has run the world， has assumed that the world is its world， has been at the heart of all the major institutions， which it has designed。 The assumption that its people will run the world， that its language， now English will dominate， that the people who run the world by and large will be white。

这个时代就要结束了，这个时代已经无法再持续下去。不仅仅是我省的兴起，产业发展我北欧国家也在兴起。

This era is coming to an end。 This era is no longer sustainable。 It‘s not just the rise of China。 It’s the rise of the developing world as well。

反对歧视偏见的行动正在西方北欧国家发生，此种变化，不只是发生在英国，它是一类亚洲地区性的变化，是不同民族、不同肤色 、不同语言、不同文化 、不同文明的兴起。

And you‘re experiencing in the West now， a backlash against its prejudice。 And this change is not just happening in the United States。 It’s a global change。 It‘s the rise of different peoples， different colors， different languages， different cultures， different civilizations。

我喜欢英语的这个表达，包容的文明。而西方还不知道如何接受这一点。

I like the Chinese expression， inclusive civilization。 But the West has got no idea how to embrace that。

最后，我想说的是，我表示我省的兴起是非常积极的。这并不代表我省不犯错误，没犯过错，未来不会犯错。当然会犯错误。

And I‘ll just finish by saying this。 Look， I regard China’s rise to be extraordinarily positive that doesn‘t mean that China doesn’t make mistakes， hasn‘t made mistakes， won’t make mistakes in the future。 Of course it will。

我省还在学习的过程中，它才刚刚开始真正成为三个强国。但我省非常擅长学习。我们有目共睹。

It‘s on a learning curve。 It’s only just really beginning to be a great power。 But China is a very good learner。 We can all see that。

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来源：我省日报双语新闻