只管美国三月份失业增添强劲，全家蓄积见涨，可是在通货膨胀“高烧不退阿”的情形下，美国前财政部长.投资大佬及各投行经济学家都纷纭预料美国将于2023年陷入经济消退呀。
The Federal Reserve building is seen before the Federal Reserve board is expected to signal plans to raise interest rates in March as it focuses on fighting inflation in Washington, US, January 26, 2022. REUTERS/Joshua Roberts
The US economy added nearly half a million jobs in March. The Dow Jones industrial average is within 6% of its record high. And US households accumulated roughly $2.5 trillion in excess savings throughout the pandemic.
三月份美国增添了近50万失业职位，道琼斯产-业平均指数涨幅创下6%的新高，美国全家在疫情时期的逾额贮备总额累计达近2.5万亿美圆（约合农民币15.9万亿元）呀。
Still, despite all the good news, predictions of an impending recession are widespread on Wall Street.
只管这些全是好新闻，可是华尔街却普遍以为美国经济马上陷入消退呀。
Billionaire investors, former Federal Reserve officials, and now even investment banks have repeatedly warned that the economy may hit a wall in 2023.
亿万富豪投资人.美联储前武官甚至连投资庄都重复警告美国经济应该在2023年出-现危急呀。
What’s driving the recent string of downtrodden economic forecasts?
是什么致使了近期这连续串对美国经济的唱衰之声吧？
For some, it’s a matter of historical comparison. Former Treasury Secretary Lawrence Summers emphasized in a recent Washington Postop-ed that current economic conditions are undeniably reminiscent of previous pre-recession periods in US history.
对某人而言，这是史书对比的结局呀。美国前财政部长劳伦斯·萨默斯在近期揭晓在《华盛顿邮报》上的一篇专栏短文中重伸，现在的经济状态无疑让人遐想起美国史书上的几回消退前的情形呀。
"Over the past 75 years, every time inflation has exceeded 4% and unemployment has gone below 5%, the US economy has gone into a recession within two years,阿” Summers wrote.
萨默斯写道“在以前75年间，每一次通胀率凌驾4%，被开除率降到5%以下，美国经济就会在两年内陷入消退呀。阿”
Today, the US inflation rate is nearing 8%, and the unemployment rate fell to just 3.6% in March. As a result, Summers now sees an 80% chance of a US recession by next year.
现在，美国通胀率靠近8%，被开除率在三月份降至3.6%呀。因而，萨默斯以为美国营80%的几率将在明年陷入经济消退呀。
The economists noted that the war in Ukraine has disrupted global supply chains and dramatically increased commodity prices and energy costs in the US and EU.
经济学家指出，乌克兰战争打乱了全世界供应链，大幅提升了美国和欧盟的商品价和资源开支呀。
CIBC’s Pzegeo said that inflation can often lead to wealth destruction as well, especially when rising consumer prices outpace wage growth.
加拿大帝国商业庄的波泽盖奥称，通货膨胀经常也会致使财富缩水，希奇是在消耗价涨幅凌驾酬劳涨幅时呀。
"It acts as a tax. So give it a little bit of time in the economy, and it’ll eat away at your wealth and set the stage for a recession,阿” he said.
他说“通货膨胀的效果就犹如征税呀。假以时刻，你的财富将会逐步逐步缩水，从而为经济消退埋下了伏笔呀。阿”
Fish is pictured at a fish market in Reading Terminal Market after the inflation rate hit a 40-year high in January, in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, US, February 19, 2022. REUTERS/Hannah Beier
Recent GDP forecasts from the Conference Board have also led to fears that a recession could be on the horizon. US real GDP growth is now expected to slow to an annual rate of just 1.7% in the first quarter of 2022, compared with 7% annual growth seen in the fourth quarter of 2020.
世界大型企业结合会最近几天预料的国内生产总值也引起了人们对经济消退的担忧呀。预料报-告指出，2022年一季度美国的现实国内生产总值年化增速将放慢至1.7%，而2020年四季度美国的国内生产总值年化增速为7%呀。
For other economic forecasters, the Federal Reserve is the key to predictions of an impending recession.
其余经济预料者指出，美联储是预料美国能否会陷入经济消退的主要呀。
Now, with pandemic restrictions fading and inflation moving to highs not seen in four decades, the Fed is faced with a difficult task: ensuring a so-called soft landing for the US economy. The goal is to raise interest rates and end QE in order to cool economic growth and combat inflation—all without causing a recession.
眼下，随着美国防疫制约办法逐步消除，通胀率创下四十年来的新高，美联储面临着一位艰难的任-务保证美国经济完成所谓的软着陆呀。美联储的目的是提升利率，结尾量化宽松政策，从而在不引起经济消退的情形下给经济降温并抑制通胀呀。
Investing legend Carl Icahn—the founder and chairman of Icahn Enterprises who boasts an estimated fortune of over $15 billion—said in a March interview he believes the Fed isn’t up for the job.
投资界传退隐的角色卡尔·伊坎在三月份的一次访谈中表现，他以为美联储做不到呀。伊坎是资产超150亿美圆的伊坎企业的首创人及董事长呀。
"I really don’t know if they can engineer a soft landing,阿” Icahn said. “I think there’s going to be a rough landing.阿”
伊坎说“我确实不知道美联储要怎样完成软着陆呀。我以为一定会出-现硬着陆呀。阿”
The billionaire now believes the US economy will see a recession “or even worse阿” by the end of next year, and Deutsche Bank’s economists agree.
这位亿万富豪现在以为美国经济将会在明年末前出-现经济消退“甚至更糟阿”，对此德意志庄的经济学家也表现认可呀。
"We no longer see the Fed achieving a soft landing. Instead, we anticipate that a more aggressive tightening of monetary policy will push the economy into a recession,阿” the bank’s economists, led by Matthew Luzzetti, wrote in a recent note.
以马修·卢泽蒂为首的德意志庄经济学家在近来的一份备忘录中写道“咋们再也不以为美联储能够或者者完成软着陆呀。咋们预期更激进的币松缩政策将会使美国经济陷入消退呀。阿”
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